SUI recently fell back to around $0.83, entering a support zone that has been repeatedly tested in recent months. Foreign media reports that the $0.82 to $0.85 range previously attracted buying interest, but this recent dip was accompanied by weakening on-chain activity and new user data, creating a clear divergence between rebound expectations and fundamentals.
On-chain activity continues to decline
The article cites Artemis data stating that SUI's daily active addresses and new addresses have been declining for the past few months. This indicates weakened user engagement with on-chain applications and a slowdown in new user inflows.
For public blockchain projects, these two data points are typically used to observe changes in network demand. A continued decline in activity often weakens market expectations for ecosystem expansion and also affects the sustainability of spot buying.
Futures positions remain high
Despite downward pressure on spot prices, the derivatives market has not completely turned bearish. Messari data shows that open interest in SUI futures remains close to $442 million, indicating that a significant amount of capital remains in the contract market.
Meanwhile, funding rates have remained positive in recent weeks, indicating that long positions are still incurring costs to maintain their holdings. The article argues that this reflects some traders still betting on a price correction, but this expectation is not yet supported by on-chain data.
- SUI has fallen by more than 5% in the past 24 hours.
- Spot prices once fell back to around $0.83.
- Open interest in futures contracts is approximately $442 million.
The area around $0.82 has become the short-term focus.
The article argues that the $0.82 to $0.85 range is the most important area to watch for SUI. If this area holds, the price has a chance to retest the resistance near $1.07 and attempt to return to the previous trading range.
However, the article also mentions that the fund flow indicator is still below the zero line, indicating that funds are still flowing out and buyers have not yet fully regained control. If the price falls below $0.82, it may further decline to around $0.74.
Overall, the core judgment of this commentary is that SUI has entered a key support zone, but the coexistence of weakening on-chain demand and long bets on derivatives means that the subsequent trend depends on whether the support level can be held and whether network activity recovers.
