The crypto market has weakened again, with Bitcoin falling back to around $77,000 after losing its recent rebound range, and mainstream altcoins also seeing general declines. This round of market adjustment is not due to fluctuations in a single coin; rather, it is driven more by increasing macroeconomic risk aversion and the continued outflow of ETF funds.
Total market value declines, yet trading volume increases instead.
In the past 24 hours, the total market value of the crypto market has dropped to approximately $2.62 trillion, a decrease of about 1.55%. At the same time, the 24-hour trading volume has risen to around $84.3 billion, indicating an increase in trading activity during the decline.
Bitcoin traded at around $77,225, a significant drop from the previous day's level of around $78,500, and at one point fell below $76,500 during the session. Ethereum has yet to break through the $2,500 mark, but its price remains above $2,450. XRP fell by more than 3% to $1.34, while BNB was at $714. Solana and Hyperliquid also fell below the $100 and $80 levels respectively.
Stablecoins still occupy a large share of transactions. Data shows that their 24-hour trading volume exceeds $90 billion, indicating that market funds are still making frequent reallocations, with more flowing towards defensive and transitional assets.
Macroeconomic risk aversion sentiment suppresses risky assets
This round of decline first came from external market pressures. After the situation in the Middle East escalated, crude oil prices rose significantly. Reports indicated that Brent crude oil once reached $109.97 per barrel, with a weekly increase of nearly 11%. The rise in energy prices renewed market concerns about inflation and also weakened risk appetite.
At the same time, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight policy have intensified. The article mentions that the probability of the market betting on the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points next week has risen to about 71%, up from 61% previously. This change has driven U.S. Treasury yields higher.
Among them, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.979%, approaching the 5% mark, while the yield on 30-year bonds was around 5.38%. The U.S. Dollar Index hovered near 99. When yields on U.S. Treasuries and the dollar are both strong, it tends to suppress high-volatility risky assets, including crypto assets.
ETF Outflows and liquidation magnify the downward trend
In addition to macroeconomic factors, the funding situation is also weakening. Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $120.2 million on that day, compared to a net outflow of $46.6 million on the previous trading day, resulting in a cumulative outflow of approximately $166.8 million over the two days. Continuous outflows indicate a decline in new buying interest and a reduction in the market's capacity to absorb demand.
Leveraged liquidations further amplify volatility. Data in the text shows that recently, the amount of margin calls in the crypto market exceeded 386 million US dollars, of which about 270 million US dollars were from long positions. When price declines trigger the liquidation of long positions, it often leads to a chain reaction of selling pressure, exacerbating short-term price drops.
Next, market attention will still be focused on oil prices, U.S. inflation, and expectations for Federal Reserve policy. If these pressures ease, Bitcoin and mainstream tokens may have a chance to stabilize; however, if oil prices continue to rise, inflation expectations heat up, or ETF continues to flow out, the current adjustment may continue.
