This week, the global market will see a series of intensive events, with focus on the progress of U.S. crypto legislation, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as well as Japan's inflation and central bank policy signals. For the crypto market, these timing points not only affect risk appetite but also influence liquidity expectations.
Pay attention to the bill voting on September 15th.
The U.S. Senate will conduct a procedural vote on the CLARITY bill on September 15th. This step will determine whether the Senate will proceed to the formal debate phase. According to the procedure, the bill needs to receive 60 votes of support in order to move forward.
Senator Cynthia Lummis previously released the final draft of the bill, which consists of 635 pages in total. It includes more stringent ethical provisions and incorporates over 120 amendments proposed by the Democratic Party. Reports indicate that after the draft was made public, market bets on the likelihood of the bill passing increased, but there is still opposition to some of the provisions within the Republican Party, among the banking industry, and by certain industry groups.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve announced its decision.
The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision on September 16. In addition to focusing on whether interest rates will be adjusted, the market is also observing the statements made by Fed officials regarding the subsequent policy path.
If policy stance is tight, market expectations for liquidity may shrink, putting pressure on risky assets; if interest rates remain unchanged and the wording is relatively mild, market sentiment may be supported. For Bitcoin, such policy signals are usually transmitted to price performance through US dollar liquidity and risk appetite.
Japanese CPI makes its debut on the same day as the central bank
The United States will release the number of people claiming unemployment benefits at the beginning of last week on September 17. Reports indicate that the previous figure was 206,000, and it is expected to rise to 209,000 this week. If employment data continues to weaken, it may reinforce the market's assessment of a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
On September 18th, Japan will release the data for August CPI, and the Bank of Japan will also make its interest rate decisions. The market expects Japan's core inflation to be in the range of 1.8% to 2.0%, close to the Bank of Japan's target of 2%. If inflation exceeds expectations, it may increase the likelihood of further interest rate hikes and affect yen carry trades as well as global market volatility.
Bitcoin approaches a key level
Reports show that Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,805, up 23.7% in the past month, but it has fallen by about 2% in the recent week. The price is still below the resistance level around $78,500.
The article mentions that if the CLARITY legislation progresses smoothly and the Federal Reserve maintains its interest rates unchanged, market sentiment may improve, giving Bitcoin the opportunity to continue to rise; however, if the legislative or policy outcomes fall short of expectations, prices could come under pressure again. Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin are also listed as the main crypto assets that will receive simultaneous attention this week.
