Polymarket US Launches 5-minute Prediction Contracts for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP

Polymarket US has launched 5-minute binary option prediction contracts for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.

Prior to this launch, Polymarket successfully returned to the U.S. market through QCX LLC, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

However, Polymarket and Kalshi continue to face resistance at the state level, with comprehensive or partial bans being imposed in multiple judicial jurisdictions.

Polymarket has officially launched 5-minute cryptocurrency price prediction contracts on Polymarket US App. The selected cryptocurrencies include Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP.

The application operates in the form of a binary options market, offering two prediction directions: "up" and "down"; for each contract with a correct prediction, a payment of $1 is made.

To promote fairness, settlement is based on the 60-second time-weighted average price of Chainlink ( TWAP ). The platform states that by averaging the price of this digital asset over the past 60 seconds, it is possible to prevent price manipulation and/or cheating at the last moment.

In addition, in the event of a tie (i.e., the predicted price is the same as the initial price), the settlement will be automatically made in the "upward" direction.

Polymarket Returns to the US Market

Polymarket was initially launched in the United States in 2020, but later faced a fine of $1.4 million for offering unregistered derivatives and was forced to cease its operations in the US.

However, in July 2025, the platform acquired QCX LLC for $112 million, with the main goal of returning to the US market. This derivatives exchange came with an existing CFTC license, which allowed it to replace the previously unregulated connection between the Web3 digital wallet and Polymarket.

Earlier this month, Polymarket US launched 15-minute, hourly, and daily contracts, with the latest ultra-short-term contract being the 5-minute product introduced on the same day.

Growth and Competition

Although Polymarket holds a dominant position in the global event market, in terms of transaction volume among American consumers, Kalshi is still ahead. This is mainly because Kalshi was legally launched in 2020, starting 5 years earlier than Polymarket. Kalshi also focuses on attracting deep institutional liquidity and has established cooperative relationships with Robinhood, Coinbase, and Webull, among others. Its contract coverage includes a wider range of event types, such as sports, economic indicators, and weather.

In contrast, the contract of Polymarket currently mainly covers cryptocurrency and pop culture events. Its operation is still independent at present, and users need to access the beta version of the application through an invitation system.

In addition, although both companies are regulated at the federal level by CFTC, Nevada and Minnesota have completely shut down all predictive market platforms. Washington and Michigan have prohibited transactions related to sports contracts, while New York, Texas, and California are actively challenging the predictive market business.