Halloween shopping has become more expensive this year, as higher prices have been passed on to every aspect of the festivities, from candy bowls to gourds on porches.
This not only puts pressure on consumers but may also affect companies such as Hershey (Hershey).
According to the National Retail Federation of the United States ( National Retail Federation ), Americans are expected to spend $13.5 billion on Halloween, which is higher than last year's record level of $13.1 billion.
NRF Allison Zeller, Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights, stated: "Consumers continue to prioritize Halloween spending, but they are also approaching this season with considerations for affordability."
Inflation is spreading across various aspects, from candies to clothing. The price of pumpkins has also increased. Data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that the average retail price of pumpkins this year has reached $5.36, an increase of 11% compared to September 2020. Due to drought, production in some areas of Texas has decreased by about 30% to 40%; Texas is one of the main pumpkin-producing regions.
Candies and chocolates
Candies remain one of the biggest expenses for this year's Halloween, and their prices have risen faster than overall food inflation, although the rate of increase has slowed down.
The latest Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) data shows that in September, the prices of candies and chewing gum increased by 7.7% year-on-year; the category of sugar and sweets also saw a 5.5% increase during the same period. Adverse weather conditions, including the impact of El Niño, have tightened the supply prospects for sugar. Abnormally humid weather in Brazil has disrupted sugarcane harvesting, while drought and other extreme weather events have affected production in other major producing areas.
Food economist Richard Wolpe ( Richard Volpe ) wrote on LinkedIn : "As Halloween approaches rapidly, candies in grocery stores are among the categories with higher prices compared to the same period last year." He added, "In previous years at this time, I would usually be overwhelmed by candies. But as I write this article, there are only a few days left until Halloween, and I have only three meager bags of candies on my desk."
Nielson IQ ( Nielsen IQ ) early market data shows that as of September 19, Halloween candy sales decreased by 11.7% year-on-year. Four weeks later, the decline narrowed to 6.7%, with chocolate sales dropping by 7.2% and candy products by 5.3%, according to the report.
So far, chocolate has been the most significantly affected, especially after disruptions in the cocoa supply from West Africa. The cocoa supply from West Africa has been impacted by unfavorable growing conditions in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. The potential El Niño phenomenon, as well as the dry Harmatan trade winds, may put pressure on West African cocoa crops in the 2026 to 2027 season.
David Branch, industry manager at the Bank of America Agricultural Food Research Institute ( Wells Fargo Agri - Food Institute ), stated that the commodities market had previously seen some relief due to a significant decline in cocoa prices from historical highs.
But this decline has not yet resulted in cheaper chocolate.
Wells Fargo Agricultural and Food Research estimates that chocolate prices this year will be about 8% higher than last Halloween, and after promotions, the actual transaction prices will rise by approximately 5% to 8%. Many of the chocolates on store shelves this Halloween are made from cocoa that was purchased 6 to 12 months ago.
Branch told CNBC: “The worst phase of the cocoa crisis has passed, but the price relief has not yet been reflected in the shelves. For chocolate manufacturers, the main issues in 2026 are no longer just cocoa supply; they include a mismatch in timing between falling futures prices, high-cost inventories, negotiations with retailers, and consumer price sensitivity.”
According to NIQ data, within the nine weeks up to October 17th, Halloween chocolate sales decreased by 7.2% year-on-year, with milk chocolate being a major contributor to this overall decline.
NIQ It is estimated that Halloween chocolate sales decreased by $33.1 million compared to last year, with milk chocolate sales falling by $34.4 million. Meanwhile, dark chocolate sales increased by $2.3 million. Overall, sales of Halloween candies, gum, and mints declined by 6.7%.
To boost sales, retailers are offering discounts – Walmart ( Walmart ) and Target ( Target ) have both launched time-limited promotions and substantial discounts on a range of products from candies to Halloween costumes.
At the same time, candy consumers seem to be turning to smaller packages. NIQ data shows that small packages of 9 ounces and less have seen a 24% increase in sales when calculated in dollars and a 14% increase in quantity; whereas all larger package sizes are on the decline.
Wells Fargo expects that consumers will increasingly prefer products with more value and alternatives that use less cocoa, including gummies, sour candies, wafers, and caramel.
Branch said, "Consumers will still continue to buy candies, but their shopping baskets are likely to contain less chocolate, more value-for-money options, as well as a higher proportion of gummies, sour products, wafers, caramel, and other low-cocoa substitutes."
On Friday, Hershey's stock price rose as consumers shifted from AI stocks to more stable essential consumer goods. However, analysts believe that the confectionery manufacturer still faces troubles.
The company announced its third-quarter results on Thursday and lowered its forecast for organic sales growth in 2026 from 3% to 3.5% to 3%. Scott Max, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase ( Jefferies ), said that this means organic growth in the fourth quarter will be “virtually flat”.
In his research report, he stated that Hershey's approach is 'more cautious regarding growth', and indicated that 'consumer and cost pressures' are weighing on the short-term outlook.
Hershey's CEO Kirk Tanner ( Kirk Tanner ) said to analysts during the financial report conference call: "We are focusing on areas such as convenience stores, because you will see that consumers place more emphasis on value when under pressure, and we are driving pricing through customized promotions rather than overall price cuts."
Max has lowered the target price for the stock to $170, joining the list of downgrades by institutions such as DA Davidson, BNP Paribas (BNP Paribas), Bernstein, and Deutsche Bank (Deutsche Bank). FactSet data shows that the consensus earnings per share forecast for 2027 has been lowered by 3.7% to $9.49.
CNBC's Alex Harring also contributed to this report.
