Dogecoin fell back below $0.083 on Tuesday. Although it found support near the short-term moving average on the previous trading day, market buying momentum did not significantly increase. The cash ETF capital flow was weak, and derivative positions were bearish. Coupled with the fact that there were no consistent signs of strengthening in on-chain and futures data, this round of recovery trend still appears fragile.
Spot ETF capital flow remains weak
SoSoValue Data shows that US spot Dogecoin ETF trading has been generally inactive since last week, with no significant inflow of funds observed. DOGE Although it has rebounded from around $0.070, institutional funds have not increased their positions accordingly.
If ETF continues to stagnate, DOGE will lack an important source of incremental demand. If it later turns into a net outflow, short-term selling pressure may further increase.
The long-short ratio has declined, indicating a bearish market sentiment.
CoinGlass Data shows that the long-short ratio on DOGE dropped to 0.84 on Tuesday, reaching a level not seen in over a month. A long-short ratio below 1 indicates that there are more short positions than long positions, suggesting that traders are generally betting on a decline in prices.
The funding rate signals something slightly different. DOGE The funding rate, which is weighted by position size, became positive on September 9th, reporting 0.0010% on Tuesday. This indicates that the demand for leveraged long positions has not disappeared, but the current level is still low and not sufficient to reverse the pressure brought about by bearish positions.
The market summary for CryptoQuant also shows that large orders have appeared in the DOGE futures market, but sellers still hold the dominant position. The activity in the spot market has increased somewhat, however, other indicators remain near neutral.
Short-term support is between $0.081 and $0.082.
Currently, DOGE is still trading above the level of $0.081 from the 50-day EMA and $0.082 from the 100-day EMA, forming a short-term support zone. However, its price is still below the $0.092 level of the 200-day EMA, indicating that the medium-term trend has not yet strengthened.
From the perspective of momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index RSI is close to 47, indicating that the forces of bulls and bears are roughly balanced; MACD is still slightly below the zero line, suggesting that the upward momentum is limited.
If the price reclaims 0.088 US dollars, the market may test resistance around 0.092 US dollars; if it breaks through further, the next more significant supply zone is at 0.102 US dollars. On the contrary, once the support range of 0.081 to 0.082 US dollars is lost, DOGE might revisit the 0.070 US dollar area.
